March 7, 2021

Thirty Percent vs. The Noise

A few weeks ago, I posted a note on Facebook about the 2020 UFO/UAP sighting report numbers to date using NUFORC data. Almost immediately several fellows commented “They’re all Fake, Drones or Military.” A second guy commented, “You’re going to have to remove all the Fakes, Misidentified and Crackpot reports.”

That second remark reminded me of a scene from the Movie “Amadeus.” After a brilliant concert by Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart a “fan” comes up to Mozart and tells him that his concert had “too many notes.” She proceeds to tell the maestro that his concert piece would be “just perfect” if he took out some of the notes.

After Linda Miller Costa and I published our 2017 book; “The UFO Sightings Desk Reference: United States of America 2001-2015” we frequently had people tell us the kinds of sightings that should be taken out of the raw data that was the basis for the book. We had a larger number of people criticizing us for NOT personally vetting each of the 121,000 sightings in our 2017 book.

Likewise, we have had several individuals “demand to see our 25 best case studies.” When we explained that we did not have case study studies they lamented, “How could we do research without case studies?”

No matter how we explained Statistical Investigation vs. Field Investigation, these folks demanding our case studies, just could not wrap their heads around our study of “The Sighting Report Phenomena.” Their view was that we had to eliminate all the possible explainable vs. the unexplainable.

The problem as I explained it to one talk radio host; the raw data is a stack of hay the size of a house. The golden sighting events were buried some where in that stack of hay.

Linda and I always assumed that there was a percentage of NOISE in the data. But our view was to report the statistics for the whole body of raw UFO/UAP sightings report data. Then generate reports on smaller scale amounts of data.

When several radio talk hosts asserted that we could not prove that the UFOs/UAPs were from off world. Our answers were simply, “You can’t prove their not!” and “That’s not what we were studying.”

When they protested that we had NO EVIDENCE. Our answer was, “We have eyewitness accounts, 121,000 of them.” Every officer of the court we spoke too agreed that an eyewitness account, short of CSI evidence, can still get you convicted in any court in the country.

The point of this article is the NOISE. The noise amounts to the explainable, the miss-identified, the fakes and the hoaxes.

Dr. Jacques Vallée suggested that 80% of UFO/UAP sighting reports were explainable noise. The MUFON organization and their well-trained investigators have stated that about 70% are explainable.

Linda and I took our own statistical approach to defining what might be noise and what might not be. We looked at the non-aerodynamic shapes. So, anything that was just a light in the sky or something that could be loosely construed to be a conventional aircraft, we took out of our consideration.

We took the Triangle shape out because many people insisted that they are TR3-B. Likewise, I took out saucer shapes because I knew that both the Air Force and the Navy have flown in development such aircraft since the 1940s. For our analysis, we ended up keeping all the weird shapes. Linda has been quoted as stating, “The Truth is in the Exotic Shapes.”

These remaining exotic non-aerodynamic craft amounted to about 30% of the data. Let us assume for the sake of argument that these exotic shapes were not built on the earth and were constructed by an off-world civilization.

From 2001 thru 2018 – There were 146,800 UFO/UAP sighting reports compiled from NUFORC and MUFON data. Let us do a bit of rough math.
• Let us take 70% of the 2001-2018 sighting reports right-off-the-top and assume they are explainable noise: Hoaxes, Fakes, Drones, Military and Misidentified conventional aircraft.
• 146,800 times 30% equals 44,040 possible exotic craft.
• If we divided 44,040 by 18 years, we get about 2446 sighting reports per year if all years were equal, {they are not equal.}
• If we divide 2446 by 12 months, we get about 204 sightings for each month of the 18 years.
• If we divide 204 sighting per month per year by 50 states and the district, we get 4; assuming all states are equal for sightings, {they are not equal.}
• We get 4 sightings a month, per year for 18 years, for DC and every state in the union of exotic craft. That is still a mind-boggling number when you think about it.

The question has been asked of us. Are bigger states with larger populations more likely to get these visitations. Honestly, we do not know!

Lastly, common logic might suggest that the UFO/UAP of the “abducting kind” might want to loiter in less populated areas to make abductions less visible to prying eyed observers. But after speaking with over a hundred of Abductees/Experiencers, I would have to say No.

It seems that ET is only interested in certain people in certain family lines over multiple generations. Many thousands of them yes, but a selective small sample size in relationship to the over all population of the Earth. The way it has been put to me by experiencers, if ET has tagged you and your family, it does not matter if you are in the wilds of Wyoming or in downtown Manhattan. They have the means to snag you if they wish.

In closing, I should state I have had several people tell me I still need to take out some sighting numbers. Some want the non-noise number to be as little as 10% or 5%. A half dozen thought that only 1% of the sighting report numbers should be counted. They told me that they “feel” that a very small percentage is more believable.

I am of the position that the folks who only want to accept super small percentages like 1% are simply trying to feel comfortable. Comfortable that if off-worlders are really coming here, they are infinitesimally rare. Such people should sleep with a night light, in my opinion! CC