March 7, 2021

The Truth is in the Trends and Patterns of UFO/UAP Statistical Data

UFO Sightings

I am a Moderator in several UFO/UAP groups on Facebook. From time to time I will post a list of cities from some random state and their UFO/UAP sighting report totals for a certain year or window of years.

Within a short time, there are snarky and downright nasty comments about the residents of that state and those localities. The remarks accuse the sighting reporting residents of drinking too much or taking hallucinogenic drugs. In some groups, it is a bunch of mansplainers, dismissing all UFO/UAP Sighting reports to Fakes, Hoaxes, and Drones.

Last week I was interviewed by a MAINE Newspaper about the UFO/UAP statistics in that state. In the comments section following the article, here again were the typical naysayers suggesting that UFO/UAP sighting reports were the product of delusional people, hoaxes or substance induced fantasy.

In 2017, my spouse Linda Miller Costa and I published a fifteen-year compilation of NUFORC and MUFON sighting report data: UFO Sightings Desk Reference: United States of America 2001-2015. (available globally on Amazon) A word of caution, our book is comprised of charts, graphs and tables of data, in essence a census of UFO/UAP reports for the period, there are NO CASE STUDIES!

Our study was groundbreaking because it was the first book about the UFO/UAP phenomenon that was data driven verses anecdotal. Here was data and analysis and not just stories.

Since the 2017 book came out, we continued to find ways to look at the data and produce new ways to look at the information hiding deep in the data.

We found not only predictable yearly patterns, but also found long-term monthly patterns spanning the 216 months of 2001 through 2018.

We discovered a UFO/UAP sighting climate weather pattern related to latitudes. Add to that the 37th latitude is not the UFO/UAP superhighway as it has been hyped. There are ten other latitudes with far more UFO/UAP sighting report traffic and more consistently visible across the United States.

We found an over arching day of the week pattern related to 76% of the country. We also uncovered that the outlier 24% days of the week were concentrated in the southern states.

We discovered an hours of the day pattern that was unheard of until we wrote an algorithm and produced it.

We recognized that the USA typically averages about 25 UFO/UAP sighting reports per day. When we generated these day-by-day report charts for specific states for a specific year, we discovered something odd. Rare one day sighting report flap spikes.

For example: 16 April 2008 had a spike of 60 sighting reports on that day. When we ran a breakout report some 20 states had sighting activity in the ones and twos. But in Indiana that averages perhaps three sighting reports per week had 25 sighting reports for that day. When we ran another break out report, we found that those 25 sightings were roughly split between two neighboring counties.  For more resolution we were able to drill down to the municipal level for even more detail.

We call these individual state one-year plots “Event Windows.” For the time period 2001 to 2018, each state had 18 yearly Event Windows. All fifty states plus the District, amounts to a possible 918 event windows. (18×51) Using the combined data of NUFORC and MUFON for individual state data for the 2001-2018 period, we identified a little over 150 of these one-day UFO/UAP sighting flaps. Most of them are in smaller municipalities that most of us have never heard of!

As we add 2019 and 2020 data, we will be looking at another 102 of these event windows looking for more unique one day UFO/UAP sighting flaps.

During the March-April lockdown period in 2020, we were scrutinizing the data characteristics of individual UFO/UAP shape-silhouettes. Interestingly, we discovered many of the exotic UFO/UAP shapes seem to have certain monthly seasons of prominence. Who knew?

From 2001-2018 we tallied 146,785 UFO sighting reports from the combined MUFON and NUFORC databases. 2019 and 2020 will add about another 20,845 to the previous eighteen-year total. The 2001 through 2020, twenty-year total is expected to tally at about 167,630. At this writing we are still sanitizing the 2019 and 2020 data for minor glitches.

Given the huge size of the combined databases and the magnitude of some of the patterns we have observed, we are generally very comfortable that the percentage of Fakes, Hoaxes, and Drones postulated by the social media trolls are generally about or less than 5% of the total.

Linda and I are frequently criticized for NOT being “boots on the ground” field investigators.  To that we say, “There are other ways to study a subject matter besides being CSI style investigators.” We have the deepest respect for field investigators, and I consult with a number of them regularly.

But it should be noted that Linda and I are a couple of old ladies. Classic field investigation is a bit too arduous for the both of us. So Big Data statistical analysis was the niche that we carved out for ourselves and we are proud of the facts and realities we have been able to glean from the data.

Our new twenty-year sample of UFO/UAP statistics and analysis book is expected out in May 2021. It is titled: UFO Sightings Desk Reference: United States of America 2001-2020 (This book will also be available globally on Amazon) CC